Georgia Republicans will win by targeting Bottoms and retreating from Trump
The good news for Republicans is that the Democrats just nominated Keisha Lance Bottoms to be their gubernatorial nominee.
During the primary, Republican candidate Rick Jackson, perhaps showing too much cockiness, started running ads against her. A prominent Republican called me from Washington. “Can someone get that guy to stop?” He asked with frustration in his voice. “This is who we want.” The GOP got her.
The former mayor of Atlanta was so unpopular by the end of her first term that she could not run for re-election. Not since Sherman marched through Atlanta had so many businesses been burned under her watch and the riots of the summer of 2020.
Eight-year-old Secoriea Turner died on July 4, 2020, and both the prosecution and defense in that case, without naming her directly, pointed fingers at Mayor Bottoms and her leadership.
On primary night, the former mayor underperformed in metro Atlanta, unable to get above 50% of the vote in Fulton and DeKalb counties, less than 55% in Cobb, and less than 60% in Gwinnett. Those who know her best trust her least.
That’s the good news.
Be a Kemp Republican, not a Trump one
Here is the bad news for the GOP. As AJC politics columnist Patricia Murphy noted, 72% of Hispanic voters chose a Democrat ballot, compared to 47% in 2022. The Asian vote went from 44% to 63%. The white vote for Democrats went from 14% to 25%.
Donald Trump is underwater with voters in Georgia.
The Republican candidates are still in runoffs while the Democrats can start spending on the general election, defining the Republicans. The Republicans are helping the Democrats as all of them run to be Trump’s man in Atlanta.
The mayor of Atlanta may have presided over the sacking of Buckhead, sparking a secessionist movement there, but the Republicans might as well change their names to William Tecumseh Sherman.
Donald Trump is as popular in the metro Atlanta area now as Sherman was back in 1864.
Put more bluntly, of Georgia’s 11 million residents, six million live in the Atlanta area and five million live outside Atlanta. Running as “Trump’s man in Atlanta” is like the Joker in “The Dark Knight” setting fire to a pile of money.
In 2018, Brian Kemp was Donald Trump’s man in Atlanta and nearly lost to Stacey Abrams in the governor’s race. In 2022, Kemp was fully his own man and at odds with Trump and blew away all the competition, remaining the most popular Republican in Georgia.
It is one of the dumbest things in American politics right now to watch the Republican candidates all declare themselves Trump Republicans instead of Kemp Republicans.
The job is to win the general election, not the primary, and Republican base voters demanding such loyalty to Trump in the primary could cost them the general election.
Turnout machine provides GOP an advantage
There is more good news for Republicans, despite all of that. In 2026, an energized Democrat base outvoted Georgia Republicans by 6.6% in the Senate primary. But in 2022, Republicans outvoted Democrats by 23.4% in that Senate primary. This year, headed into the election, almost half of Republicans were undecided. That indecision goes away with a nominee.
This will be a hard race for Republicans, made harder by both President Trump’s unpopularity and the Republican nominee’s desire to be Trump’s guy to win the nomination instead of being his own man.
Republicans still maintain an edge in voting and both Gov. Kemp and former Sen. Kelly Loeffler have stronger turnout machines than the Democrats do. If you think otherwise, go back and see what happened in the state Supreme Court races.
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff benefits from incumbency. The state is one of the few left where voters are comfortable splitting their ballots between parties instead of party-line votes.
The problem for Democrats is the former mayor is not popular with her old constituents and law and order issues, immigration, her COVID record, etc., will all be used against her.
The problem for the Republicans is voters in Georgia who will decide the election do not like the president or his party right now and the winner of the Republican runoffs for the Senate and governor will, to win, wrap themselves in Trumpian garb that cannot so easily be cast aside in the general election.
Republicans have an advantage and will probably win down ballot from the Senate. But this is May and a lot can happen between May and November.
Erick Erickson is host of the nationally syndicated “Erick Erickson Show,” heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on WSB Radio. He is also a contributor to the AJC.
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