Brian Kemp voters, not MAGA faithful, will sway GOP gubernatorial runoff
A joke has started going around social media. It goes something like this: You know the best part of paying for a ticket to the Braves? You don’t have to see Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones.
The men — the Republican gubernatorial nomination contenders — are dominating the air, streaming services, the internet; they are unavoidable. They are now rapidly diverging in messaging.
Before the June 16 runoff, Jackson and Jones tried to out-Trump each other. Jones has the Trump endorsement. Jackson has the deposited checks to Trump. Jackson is the “Trump-like” businessman. Jones is the Trump supporter targeted by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis for his aggressive Trump support.
The moment the May 19 primary ended, Jackson swung so hard toward Gov. Brian Kemp you’d be forgiven for thinking he memory-holed all his “Trump-like” campaign ads.
Jackson’s swing toward tying himself to Brian Kemp has been so aggressive, the Jones campaign has denounced Jackson for suggesting Kemp endorsed him. Jackson never said that. Kemp has stayed out of the race. But Kemp’s face appears in Jackson’s ads more than Trump appears in Jones’ ads.
Peach State voters favor an independent streak
Talk to those around Brian Kemp in 2018 and they were pretty convinced they had won the election even before Trump’s last-minute endorsement. But the Trump endorsement locked Kemp in as Trump’s guy, which cost him the votes of some independents and women.
In 2022, Kemp was not only his own man; Trump actively ran former U.S. Sen. David Perdue against him. But Kemp crushed all his primary opponents and, being his own man with an established record that did not turn off independents and women, he far outperformed Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in their rematch.
MAGA voters turn out for President Trump and they turn out in primaries. But ask Republicans David Perdue, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler and 2022 Senate nominee Herschel Walker how MAGA voters, and others, perform in runoffs.
Having talked to multiple people close to several candidates and to Gov. Kemp’s own PAC, most of them believe traditional Republicans are more likely to show up for a runoff. Those voters love Kemp. One statewide candidate showed me his internal polling. It had Brian Kemp’s popularity over 80% with Republicans who vote in runoffs.
The Jackson ploy is smart. One well connected political operative not affiliated with, but familiar with, Jackson’s campaign operation told me Jackson has very detailed polling about the message that resonates with runoff likely voters. Jackson is picking up anti-establishment voters disgruntled with the status quo and, as AJC senior politics correspondent Greg Bluestein has noted in a recent story, is consolidating the non-Trump Republicans.
In 2022, Kemp received almost 74% of the vote in the primary and 53% of the general election vote. In the 2026 primary, Jones received 38.36% of the vote with the other candidates receiving 61.64%. The Jones vote had a lot of support for Jones personally and some support for him because of the Trump endorsement.
But over 60% opposed him. Jackson came in second with 32.51%. In Georgia, the second place finisher into a runoff often wins because he consolidates those votes. Jackson now has Chris Carr in his ads and Kemp in his ads with Jones’s campaign protesting that Kemp has not made an endorsement.
Trump endorsement is not necessarily a path to victory
Early on, I told all the candidates they should be careful tying themselves too closely to President Trump. The president’s most hardcore supporters can scream that I am “Never Trump” or whatever wild claims they want, but the reality is, I know Georgia politics. The pattern has been playing out.
The lieutenant governor, to get through the primary, clung to the Trump endorsement. It put him in first place headed to the runoff. But that might hurt him now as Georgia Republicans, voting for state politicians, are looking for the next Brian Kemp, not the next Donald Trump.
Nationally, the president’s endorsements have carried many candidates across the finish line in primaries and in runoffs. Georgia’s Republicans, however, have continued to have an independent streak that has benefited Brian Kemp.
The affinity for Trump can certainly help federal candidates. Look at GOP Senate top vote-getter Mike Collins’s success. But for governor, Brian Kemp is the gold standard for Georgia Republicans and wrapping one’s arms around Kemp and claiming to be a Kemp Republican is probably the smartest path through the runoff.
Kemp’s voters are likely to turn out in the runoff and we have now had two election cycles where MAGA voters did not turn out in the runoffs.
On Tuesday, we will see who shows up and who wins. The one thing we can take comfort in, regardless of whether your preferred candidate wins or loses, is that we will not have to see them on television anymore, at least till the general election heats up.
Erick Erickson is host of the nationally syndicated “Erick Erickson Show,” heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on WSB radio. He is also a contributor to the AJC.
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