Geoff Duncan is gaining support, but his past positions may come to haunt him
Georgia Democrats are exuberant following yet another massive overperformance in the 14th Congressional District special election April 7.
While Republican Clay Fuller held former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat, the GOP victory was just 12 points — that’s far shy of the 28-point victory in the 2024 election.
This double-digit swing to the Democrats in Georgia’s most conservative congressional district has many Democrats feeling that anything is possible, including retaking the governor’s mansion for the first time in more than two decades.
Doing so would give the party much more power to pursue an agenda that includes expanding Medicaid, repealing the state’s harsh abortion ban and controlling redistricting maps going into the 2030s.
But while Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff appears well-positioned to be reelected, Georgia Democrats are less certain about the gubernatorial race.
Democrats are eager to win the governor’s race
While former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads, many Democrats worry that her refusal to run for reelection after one term as the city’s leader and decampment to the Biden administration would make her a less-than-ideal candidate for winning over crucial swing voters outside of Atlanta and across the state.
That’s why some are now looking to former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who until recently was a lifelong member of the Republican Party. Duncan opposed Trump’s efforts to overturn Georgia’s election results, alienating himself from some members of his former party but winning admirers outside of it.
Late last year, Duncan became a Democrat; a month later, he announced a bid for governor as a Democrat.
Some Democrats think Duncan is their ticket to winning because his political history will be appealing to moderates.
Democratic State Rep. Michelle Au, D-Johns Creek, who has endorsed Duncan, called him “extremely collaborative, he worked in a bipartisan way that I wish more of our leaders would.”
On paper, this argument makes a lot of sense. Georgia is Georgia, not California. It’s heading towards purple territory, not blue territory. A moderate is more likely to draw in swing voters than repel them.
But there are reasons to be cautious about Duncan becoming the party’s flag bearer.
That’s because we live in a time where every politician is over-exposed — every moment of their life is captured through social or traditional media, and voters end up learning much more about them they ever expected. Their records become ingrained in voters’ minds.
And with Duncan, his liabilities rest not in being a political moderate but in expediently changing virtually every political view he’s ever held.
‘Flip flopper’ accusations will dog Duncan
Just five years ago, Duncan worked closely with Gov. Brian Kemp to pass Georgia’s “heartbeat” abortion ban; now he says he’s pro-choice. He helped blocked an expansion of Medicaid for needy Georgians; now he says he was “wrong” to do so. On issue after issue, Duncan is basically arguing that until a year ago, he was a completely different person.
This raises deep credibility issues for Duncan. The GOP will have tens of millions of dollars at its disposal to paint him as a flip flopper or cynic who just tells audiences what they want to hear. Who knows what he really believes, the party will argue.
The Republicans have pulled off this strategy before: it’s how they sunk John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. And London School of Economics and Political Science research shows that voters do penalize politicians who flip flop — especially when the flipping was recent and seen as political convenient rather than over time.
Shanette Williams, who tragically lost her daughter Amber Thurman following abortion complications, told me she has a hard time trusting Duncan.
“You’ve got to prove yourself. Because how do we know once you get into that seat that you’re going to keep your word? How do we know that you’re even trustworthy?” she said of Duncan.
(Williams has endorsed former state Sen. Jason Esteves.)
Civil rights activist Richard Rose told me he was concerned that Duncan would lack enthusiasm among minority voters, who are key to any Democratic victory in November.
“I don’t hear anybody grassroots-wise saying that they’re considering him much at all,” he said.
Georgia Democrats are eager for a win. Winning the gubernatorial race would allow them to make lifechanging investments in health care, education, and transit.
But they shouldn’t underestimate the value of authenticity to voters in this over-exposed, social media-driven age. It may be safer to go with a candidate like Esteves — a moderate progressive with ties to Georgia’s minority communities — than someone who will painted by his former colleagues as lacking conviction beyond political expedience.
Zaid Jilani is a freelance journalist based in the metro Atlanta area.
